Predictions · Ettan Norra · outside model coverage

FBK Karlstad

43
Won

Piteå

The model leans FBK Karlstad at 67%. Expected goals: FBK Karlstad 2.60, Piteå 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 52%. FBK Karlstad won 3 of their last 6; Piteå won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FBK Karlstad75%1.33
XDraw16%6.13
2Piteå9%11.63

Pick: FBK Karlstad. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 75%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.60 – 0.81
LineOverUnder
1.585%15%
2.566%34%
3.544%56%
Both teams to scoreYes51%No49%

Most likely scores

  • 2011.3%
  • 309.7%
  • 219.1%
  • 108.7%
  • 317.8%
  • 117.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FBK Karlstad −1.5
FBK Karlstad lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.554%46%
-154%21%24%
-0.576%24%
076%15%9%
+0.591%9%
+191%7%3%
+1.597%3%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.