Predictions · Ettan Norra · outside model coverage

Hammarby TFF

11
Lost

Piteå

The model leans Hammarby TFF at 71%. Expected goals: Hammarby TFF 3.71, Piteå 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 61%. Hammarby TFF won 2 of their last 6; Piteå won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Hammarby TFF85%1.17
XDraw10%10.53
2Piteå5%19.19

Pick: Hammarby TFF. Calibrated probability 71% (raw model output 85%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 3.71 – 0.97
LineOverUnder
1.595%5%
2.584%16%
3.568%32%
Both teams to scoreYes61%No39%

Most likely scores

  • 308.0%
  • 317.8%
  • 407.4%
  • 417.2%
  • 206.5%
  • 216.3%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Hammarby TFF −2
Hammarby TFF lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.571%29%
-171%15%15%
-0.585%15%
085%9%6%
+0.594%6%
+194%4%2%
+1.598%2%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.