AFC Eskilstuna
Hammarby TFF
The model leans Hammarby TFF at 60%. Expected goals: AFC Eskilstuna 1.34, Hammarby TFF 2.77. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 70%. AFC Eskilstuna won 5 of their last 6; Hammarby TFF won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AFC Eskilstuna | 16% | 6.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.71 | – | – | – |
| 2Hammarby TFF | 67% | 1.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hammarby TFF. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.34 – 2.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 59% | 41% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.5%
- 1–37.8%
- 0–26.3%
- 1–16.1%
- 0–35.9%
- 2–25.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hammarby TFF −1.5| AFC Eskilstuna line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 10% | 84% |
| -0.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| 0 | 16% | 16% | 67% |
| +0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| +1 | 33% | 20% | 47% |
| +1.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.