AFC Eskilstuna
Umeå
The model leans AFC Eskilstuna at 38%. Expected goals: AFC Eskilstuna 2.10, Umeå 1.99. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 76%. AFC Eskilstuna won 5 of their last 6; Umeå won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AFC Eskilstuna | 41% | 2.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.58 | – | – | – |
| 2Umeå | 37% | 2.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: AFC Eskilstuna. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.10 – 1.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% |
| Both teams to score | Yes76% | No24% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–17.0%
- 1–27.0%
- 3–15.1%
- 3–25.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AFC Eskilstuna 0| AFC Eskilstuna line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 18% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 20% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 17% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.