Umeå
FC Järfälla
The model leans Umeå at 41%. Expected goals: Umeå 1.82, FC Järfälla 1.47. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. Umeå won 1 of their last 6; FC Järfälla won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Umeå | 45% | 2.23 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.05 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Järfälla | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Umeå. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.82 – 1.47| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.3%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 2–06.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Umeå −0.5| Umeå line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 21% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.