Sollentuna FK
FC Järfälla
The model leans Sollentuna FK at 37%. Expected goals: Sollentuna FK 1.32, FC Järfälla 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. Sollentuna FK won 2 of their last 6; FC Järfälla won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sollentuna FK | 39% | 2.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.40 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Järfälla | 32% | 3.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sollentuna FK. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 1.18| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–19.7%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–08.2%
- 1–27.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sollentuna FK 0| Sollentuna FK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 22% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.