Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage

Sollentuna FK

14
Won

Örebro

The model leans Örebro at 29%. Expected goals: Sollentuna FK 1.07, Örebro 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%. Sollentuna FK won 2 of their last 6; Örebro won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Sollentuna FK33%3.00
XDraw32%3.12
2Örebro35%2.88

Pick: Örebro. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 68%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.07 – 1.10
LineOverUnder
1.564%36%
2.537%63%
3.518%82%
Both teams to scoreYes44%No56%

Most likely scores

  • 1113.4%
  • 0112.5%
  • 1012.2%
  • 0011.3%
  • 127.4%
  • 217.2%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Sollentuna FK 0
Sollentuna FK lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.514%86%
-114%21%65%
-0.535%65%
035%29%36%
+0.564%36%
+164%22%15%
+1.585%15%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.