Predictions · Ettan Norra · outside model coverage

AFC Eskilstuna

21
Won

Sollentuna FK

The model leans AFC Eskilstuna at 39%. Expected goals: AFC Eskilstuna 1.68, Sollentuna FK 1.45. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. AFC Eskilstuna won 5 of their last 6; Sollentuna FK won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1AFC Eskilstuna42%2.37
XDraw26%3.89
2Sollentuna FK32%3.11

Pick: AFC Eskilstuna. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.68 – 1.45
LineOverUnder
1.582%18%
2.560%40%
3.538%62%
Both teams to scoreYes62%No38%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.7%
  • 219.0%
  • 127.7%
  • 107.4%
  • 226.5%
  • 016.3%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: AFC Eskilstuna 0
AFC Eskilstuna lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%21%57%
-0.543%57%
043%24%33%
+0.567%33%
+167%18%15%
+1.585%15%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.