Predictions · Ettan Norra · outside model coverage

Sollentuna FK

14
Lost

AFC Eskilstuna

The model leans Sollentuna FK at 42%. Expected goals: Sollentuna FK 1.76, AFC Eskilstuna 1.38. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. Sollentuna FK won 2 of their last 6; AFC Eskilstuna won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Sollentuna FK46%2.19
XDraw25%3.95
2AFC Eskilstuna29%3.44

Pick: Sollentuna FK. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.76 – 1.38
LineOverUnder
1.582%18%
2.561%39%
3.538%62%
Both teams to scoreYes62%No38%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.5%
  • 219.3%
  • 107.6%
  • 127.2%
  • 206.7%
  • 226.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Sollentuna FK −0.5
Sollentuna FK lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.525%75%
-125%21%53%
-0.547%53%
047%23%30%
+0.570%30%
+170%17%13%
+1.587%13%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.