Predictions · Ettan Norra · outside model coverage

Assyriska FF

30
Won

Sollentuna FK

The model leans Assyriska FF at 36%. Expected goals: Assyriska FF 1.38, Sollentuna FK 1.32. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. Assyriska FF won 5 of their last 6; Sollentuna FK won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Assyriska FF37%2.68
XDraw28%3.54
2Sollentuna FK34%2.91

Pick: Assyriska FF. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.38 – 1.32
LineOverUnder
1.575%25%
2.551%49%
3.529%71%
Both teams to scoreYes55%No45%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.2%
  • 109.3%
  • 018.9%
  • 218.5%
  • 128.1%
  • 006.7%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 40% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Assyriska FF 0
Assyriska FF lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.518%82%
-118%21%61%
-0.539%61%
039%26%36%
+0.564%36%
+164%20%16%
+1.584%16%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.