Predictions · Ettan Norra · outside model coverage

Assyriska FF

31
Lost

Vasalunds IF

The model leans Vasalunds IF at 50%. Expected goals: Assyriska FF 1.74, Vasalunds IF 2.32. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 75%. Assyriska FF won 5 of their last 6; Vasalunds IF won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Assyriska FF28%3.52
XDraw21%4.72
2Vasalunds IF50%1.98

Pick: Vasalunds IF. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.74 – 2.32
LineOverUnder
1.591%9%
2.577%23%
3.558%42%
Both teams to scoreYes74%No26%

Most likely scores

  • 128.1%
  • 227.0%
  • 117.0%
  • 136.3%
  • 216.1%
  • 235.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 66% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Vasalunds IF −0.5
Assyriska FF lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.514%86%
-114%15%71%
-0.529%71%
029%20%51%
+0.549%51%
+149%20%31%
+1.569%31%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.