Umeå
Vasalunds IF
The model leans Vasalunds IF at 38%. Expected goals: Umeå 1.90, Vasalunds IF 1.97. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 74%. Umeå won 1 of their last 6; Vasalunds IF won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Umeå | 37% | 2.69 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.42 | – | – | – |
| 2Vasalunds IF | 40% | 2.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vasalunds IF. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.90 – 1.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 1–17.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–35.1%
- 2–34.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Umeå 0| Umeå line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 18% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 21% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 18% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.