Gefle
Umeå
The model leans Umeå at 37%. Expected goals: Gefle 1.81, Umeå 1.82. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 71%. Gefle won 4 of their last 6; Umeå won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gefle | 38% | 2.64 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.24 | – | – | – |
| 2Umeå | 39% | 2.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: Umeå. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.81 – 1.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 1–18.7%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–17.9%
- 2–27.2%
- 0–14.8%
- 1–34.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gefle 0| Gefle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 18% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 22% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 19% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.