Gefle
IF Karlstad
The model leans IF Karlstad at 52%. Expected goals: Gefle 0.92, IF Karlstad 1.88. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%. Gefle won 4 of their last 6; IF Karlstad won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gefle | 17% | 5.89 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.13 | – | – | – |
| 2IF Karlstad | 59% | 1.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: IF Karlstad. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.92 – 1.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 0–111.4%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.7%
- 1–36.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: IF Karlstad −1| Gefle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 12% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 22% | 60% |
| +0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| +1 | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| +1.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.