Predictions · Ettan Norra · outside model coverage

IFK Stocksund

50
Won

Gefle

The model leans IFK Stocksund at 39%. Expected goals: IFK Stocksund 2.65, Gefle 2.57. Over 2.5 goals 89%, both teams to score 86%. IFK Stocksund won 1 of their last 6; Gefle won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1IFK Stocksund42%2.38
XDraw19%5.36
2Gefle39%2.54

Pick: IFK Stocksund. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.65 – 2.57
LineOverUnder
1.597%3%
2.589%11%
3.576%24%
Both teams to scoreYes86%No14%

Most likely scores

  • 226.3%
  • 325.6%
  • 235.4%
  • 214.9%
  • 334.8%
  • 124.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 71% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: IFK Stocksund 0
IFK Stocksund lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.526%74%
-126%16%58%
-0.542%58%
042%18%40%
+0.560%40%
+160%16%24%
+1.576%24%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.