IFK Stocksund
FC Arlanda
The model leans FC Arlanda at 53%. Expected goals: IFK Stocksund 1.77, FC Arlanda 2.90. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 79%. IFK Stocksund won 1 of their last 6; FC Arlanda won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1IFK Stocksund | 22% | 4.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.62 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Arlanda | 61% | 1.65 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Arlanda. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.77 – 2.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 2.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 68% | 32% |
| Both teams to score | Yes78% | No22% |
Most likely scores
- 1–27.0%
- 1–36.8%
- 2–26.2%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–44.9%
- 1–14.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Arlanda −1| IFK Stocksund line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 12% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 17% | 61% |
| +0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| +1 | 39% | 19% | 42% |
| +1.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.