FC Stockholm
FC Arlanda
The model leans FC Stockholm at 44%. Expected goals: FC Stockholm 1.49, FC Arlanda 0.98. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 50%. FC Stockholm won 4 of their last 6; FC Arlanda won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Stockholm | 48% | 2.10 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.49 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Arlanda | 24% | 4.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Stockholm. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.49 – 0.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.6%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.5%
- 0–18.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Stockholm −0.5| FC Stockholm line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.