FC Arlanda
FBK Karlstad
The model leans FBK Karlstad at 36%. Expected goals: FC Arlanda 1.08, FBK Karlstad 1.19. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%. FC Arlanda won 2 of their last 6; FBK Karlstad won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Arlanda | 32% | 3.17 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.20 | – | – | – |
| 2FBK Karlstad | 37% | 2.69 | – | – | – |
Pick: FBK Karlstad. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.08 – 1.19| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–010.4%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–27.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Arlanda 0| FC Arlanda line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 20% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.