Hammarby TFF
FC Arlanda
The model leans Hammarby TFF at 53%. Expected goals: Hammarby TFF 2.07, FC Arlanda 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%. Hammarby TFF won 2 of their last 6; FC Arlanda won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hammarby TFF | 60% | 1.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.41 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Arlanda | 18% | 5.61 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hammarby TFF. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.07 – 1.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–09.0%
- 3–16.8%
- 3–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hammarby TFF −1| Hammarby TFF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 23% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.