FBK Karlstad
Hammarby TFF
The model leans FBK Karlstad at 29%. Expected goals: FBK Karlstad 1.17, Hammarby TFF 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 52%. FBK Karlstad won 3 of their last 6; Hammarby TFF won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FBK Karlstad | 35% | 2.83 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.22 | – | – | – |
| 2Hammarby TFF | 34% | 2.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: FBK Karlstad. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.17 – 1.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–111.3%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–27.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FBK Karlstad 0| FBK Karlstad line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 21% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.