Predictions · Ettan Norra · outside model coverage

Vasalunds IF

20
Lost

FC Stockholm

The model leans FC Stockholm at 37%. Expected goals: Vasalunds IF 1.41, FC Stockholm 1.56. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 61%. Vasalunds IF won 2 of their last 6; FC Stockholm won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Vasalunds IF33%2.99
XDraw27%3.76
2FC Stockholm40%2.50

Pick: FC Stockholm. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.41 – 1.56
LineOverUnder
1.580%20%
2.557%43%
3.535%65%
Both teams to scoreYes60%No40%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.3%
  • 128.8%
  • 018.0%
  • 218.0%
  • 107.2%
  • 026.2%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Vasalunds IF 0
Vasalunds IF lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.516%84%
-116%19%65%
-0.535%65%
035%24%41%
+0.559%41%
+159%21%20%
+1.580%20%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.