Predictions · Ettan Norra · outside model coverage

IFK Stocksund

02
Won

Karlbergs BK

The model leans Karlbergs BK at 43%. Expected goals: IFK Stocksund 2.57, Karlbergs BK 2.90. Over 2.5 goals 91%, both teams to score 88%. IFK Stocksund won 1 of their last 6; Karlbergs BK won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1IFK Stocksund35%2.82
XDraw18%5.56
2Karlbergs BK47%2.15

Pick: Karlbergs BK. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 82%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.57 – 2.90
LineOverUnder
1.597%3%
2.591%9%
3.579%21%
Both teams to scoreYes87%No13%

Most likely scores

  • 225.9%
  • 235.7%
  • 325.0%
  • 334.9%
  • 124.6%
  • 134.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 72% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Karlbergs BK −0.5
IFK Stocksund lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.521%79%
-121%15%64%
-0.536%64%
036%17%47%
+0.553%47%
+153%17%30%
+1.570%30%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.