IFK Stocksund
Karlbergs BK
The model leans Karlbergs BK at 43%. Expected goals: IFK Stocksund 2.57, Karlbergs BK 2.90. Over 2.5 goals 91%, both teams to score 88%. IFK Stocksund won 1 of their last 6; Karlbergs BK won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1IFK Stocksund | 35% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.56 | – | – | – |
| 2Karlbergs BK | 47% | 2.15 | – | – | – |
Pick: Karlbergs BK. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.57 – 2.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 97% | 3% |
| 2.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 79% | 21% |
| Both teams to score | Yes87% | No13% |
Most likely scores
- 2–25.9%
- 2–35.7%
- 3–25.0%
- 3–34.9%
- 1–24.6%
- 1–34.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 72% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Karlbergs BK −0.5| IFK Stocksund line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 15% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 17% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 17% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.