Piteå
Gefle
The model leans Piteå at 38%. Expected goals: Piteå 2.20, Gefle 2.10. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 79%. Piteå won 0 of their last 6; Gefle won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Piteå | 41% | 2.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.73 | – | – | – |
| 2Gefle | 38% | 2.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: Piteå. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.20 – 2.10| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 62% | 38% |
| Both teams to score | Yes78% | No22% |
Most likely scores
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.9%
- 1–26.6%
- 1–16.3%
- 3–25.3%
- 3–15.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Piteå 0| Piteå line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 18% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 20% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 17% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.