FC Järfälla
IF Karlstad
The model leans IF Karlstad at 50%. Expected goals: FC Järfälla 0.92, IF Karlstad 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 52%. FC Järfälla won 1 of their last 6; IF Karlstad won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Järfälla | 21% | 4.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.56 | – | – | – |
| 2IF Karlstad | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: IF Karlstad. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.92 – 1.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.1%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.5%
- 1–07.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: IF Karlstad −0.5| FC Järfälla line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 15% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 26% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.