Norrby
Örebro
The model leans Norrby at 51%. Expected goals: Norrby 2.04, Örebro 1.12. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%. Norrby won 1 of their last 6; Örebro won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Norrby | 58% | 1.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.34 | – | – | – |
| 2Örebro | 19% | 5.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: Norrby. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.04 – 1.12| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–08.8%
- 1–08.6%
- 3–16.7%
- 3–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Norrby −1| Norrby line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 23% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 13% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.