Assyriska FF
IF Karlstad
The model leans IF Karlstad at 53%. Expected goals: Assyriska FF 0.88, IF Karlstad 1.88. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%. Assyriska FF won 5 of their last 6; IF Karlstad won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Assyriska FF | 16% | 6.20 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.14 | – | – | – |
| 2IF Karlstad | 60% | 1.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: IF Karlstad. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.88 – 1.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 0–111.9%
- 0–211.2%
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–37.0%
- 0–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: IF Karlstad −1| Assyriska FF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 12% | 83% |
| -0.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| 0 | 17% | 22% | 61% |
| +0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| +1 | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| +1.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.