Predictions · Superettan · outside model coverage

IK Brage

12
Won

Nordic United FC

The model leans Nordic United FC at 37%. Expected goals: IK Brage 2.04, Nordic United FC 2.05. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 77%. IK Brage won 1 of their last 6; Nordic United FC won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1IK Brage39%2.57
XDraw22%4.58
2Nordic United FC39%2.54

Pick: Nordic United FC. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.04 – 2.05
LineOverUnder
1.591%9%
2.578%22%
3.558%42%
Both teams to scoreYes76%No24%

Most likely scores

  • 227.3%
  • 127.2%
  • 217.1%
  • 117.0%
  • 235.0%
  • 325.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: IK Brage 0
IK Brage lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%18%60%
-0.540%60%
040%20%40%
+0.560%40%
+160%18%22%
+1.578%22%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.