Predictions · Superettan · outside model coverage

Nordic United FC

00
Lost

Varbergs BoIS FC

The model leans Nordic United FC at 39%. Expected goals: Nordic United FC 1.88, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.65. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 69%. Nordic United FC won 1 of their last 6; Varbergs BoIS FC won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Nordic United FC43%2.35
XDraw24%4.19
2Varbergs BoIS FC34%2.98

Pick: Nordic United FC. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.88 – 1.65
LineOverUnder
1.587%13%
2.568%32%
3.547%53%
Both teams to scoreYes68%No32%

Most likely scores

  • 119.1%
  • 218.5%
  • 127.5%
  • 227.1%
  • 105.5%
  • 315.3%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Nordic United FC 0
Nordic United FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.524%76%
-124%20%57%
-0.543%57%
043%22%34%
+0.566%34%
+166%17%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.