Predictions · Superettan · outside model coverage

Varbergs BoIS FC

01
Lost

Sandvikens IF

The model leans Varbergs BoIS FC at 51%. Expected goals: Varbergs BoIS FC 1.93, Sandvikens IF 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%. Varbergs BoIS FC won 2 of their last 6; Sandvikens IF won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Varbergs BoIS FC58%1.71
XDraw24%4.20
2Sandvikens IF18%5.62

Pick: Varbergs BoIS FC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.93 – 0.99
LineOverUnder
1.579%21%
2.556%44%
3.534%66%
Both teams to scoreYes54%No46%

Most likely scores

  • 1010.4%
  • 1110.3%
  • 2010.1%
  • 219.9%
  • 306.5%
  • 316.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Varbergs BoIS FC −1
Varbergs BoIS FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.535%65%
-135%24%41%
-0.559%41%
059%22%19%
+0.581%19%
+181%12%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.