Varbergs BoIS FC
Sandvikens IF
The model leans Varbergs BoIS FC at 51%. Expected goals: Varbergs BoIS FC 1.93, Sandvikens IF 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%. Varbergs BoIS FC won 2 of their last 6; Sandvikens IF won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Varbergs BoIS FC | 58% | 1.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.20 | – | – | – |
| 2Sandvikens IF | 18% | 5.62 | – | – | – |
Pick: Varbergs BoIS FC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.93 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–010.4%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.5%
- 3–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Varbergs BoIS FC −1| Varbergs BoIS FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 24% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.