Anderlecht
Hammarby
The model leans Hammarby at 45%. Expected goals: Anderlecht 1.54, Hammarby 2.03. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. Anderlecht won 4 of their last 6; Hammarby won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Anderlecht | 28% | 3.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.31 | – | – | – |
| 2Hammarby | 48% | 2.07 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hammarby. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.54 – 2.03| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.0%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–26.9%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–36.0%
- 0–25.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hammarby −0.5| Anderlecht line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 16% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 21% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 21% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.