Hammarby
Anderlecht
The model leans Hammarby at 55%. Expected goals: Hammarby 2.47, Anderlecht 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 66%. Hammarby won 4 of their last 6; Anderlecht won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hammarby | 63% | 1.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.10 | – | – | – |
| 2Anderlecht | 17% | 5.81 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hammarby. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.47 – 1.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.2%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–07.3%
- 3–06.0%
- 1–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hammarby −1| Hammarby line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 21% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 18% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 11% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.