Hammarby
Häcken
The model leans Hammarby at 50%. Expected goals: Hammarby 2.09, Häcken 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%. Hammarby won 4 of their last 6; Häcken won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hammarby | 55% | 1.82 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Häcken | 22% | 4.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hammarby. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.09 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–07.1%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hammarby −1| Hammarby line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 22% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 21% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 14% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.