Sirius
Häcken
The model leans Sirius at 52%. Expected goals: Sirius 2.43, Häcken 1.43. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 70%. Sirius won 2 of their last 6; Häcken won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sirius | 59% | 1.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.92 | – | – | – |
| 2Häcken | 21% | 4.81 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sirius. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.43 – 1.43| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.9%
- 1–17.3%
- 3–17.2%
- 2–26.4%
- 2–06.2%
- 1–25.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sirius −1| Sirius line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 21% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 19% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 12% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.