Sirius
Brommapojkarna
The model leans Sirius at 64%. Expected goals: Sirius 3.01, Brommapojkarna 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 67%. Sirius won 2 of their last 6; Brommapojkarna won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sirius | 73% | 1.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.56 | – | – | – |
| 2Brommapojkarna | 12% | 8.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sirius. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 73%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.01 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 3–18.1%
- 2–18.1%
- 3–06.8%
- 2–06.8%
- 4–16.1%
- 1–15.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sirius −1.5| Sirius line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| -1 | 54% | 19% | 26% |
| -0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| 0 | 74% | 14% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 8% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.