Brommapojkarna
Sirius
The model leans Sirius at 52%. Expected goals: Brommapojkarna 1.46, Sirius 2.47. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 71%. Brommapojkarna won 2 of their last 6; Sirius won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brommapojkarna | 21% | 4.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.97 | – | – | – |
| 2Sirius | 59% | 1.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sirius. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.46 – 2.47| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.8%
- 1–37.2%
- 1–17.1%
- 2–26.4%
- 0–26.0%
- 2–35.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sirius −1| Brommapojkarna line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 12% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 19% | 59% |
| +0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| +1 | 41% | 21% | 39% |
| +1.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.