Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage
Friska Viljor
0–2
Won
Sirius
The model leans Sirius at 79%. Expected goals: Friska Viljor 0.39, Sirius 6.00. Over 2.5 goals 95%, both teams to score 68%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match99
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Friska Viljor | 0% | 588.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 1% | 102.04 | – | – | – |
| 2Sirius | 99% | 1.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sirius. Calibrated probability 79% (raw model output 99%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 100%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.39 – 6.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 99% | 1% |
| 2.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 86% | 14% |
| Both teams to score | Yes32% | No68% |
Most likely scores
- 0–512.9%
- 0–612.9%
- 0–711.0%
- 0–410.7%
- 0–88.3%
- 0–37.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 73% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sirius −2| Friska Viljor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 0% | – | 100% |
| -1 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| -0.5 | 0% | – | 100% |
| 0 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| +0.5 | 1% | – | 99% |
| +1 | 1% | 3% | 96% |
| +1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.