Mjällby
Sirius
The model leans Mjällby at 50%. Expected goals: Mjällby 1.79, Sirius 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%. Mjällby won 1 of their last 6; Sirius won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mjällby | 52% | 1.91 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.94 | – | – | – |
| 2Sirius | 22% | 4.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mjällby. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.79 – 1.10| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–16.1%
- 1–26.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Mjällby −0.5| Mjällby line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 24% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 23% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.