Salzburg
Mjällby
The model leans Mjällby at 50%. Expected goals: Salzburg 0.81, Mjällby 1.61. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 54%. Salzburg won 5 of their last 6; Mjällby won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Salzburg | 18% | 5.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.68 | – | – | – |
| 2Mjällby | 55% | 1.81 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mjällby. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.81 – 1.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.3%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–211.5%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.9%
- 1–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Mjällby −0.5| Salzburg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 13% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.