Sirius
Mjällby
The model leans Mjällby at 37%. Expected goals: Sirius 1.35, Mjällby 1.47. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%. Sirius won 2 of their last 6; Mjällby won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sirius | 33% | 2.99 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Mjällby | 39% | 2.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mjällby. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.35 – 1.47| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%
- 0–18.8%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–18.0%
- 0–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sirius 0| Sirius line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 19% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.