Brommapojkarna
Hammarby
The model leans Hammarby at 50%. Expected goals: Brommapojkarna 1.32, Hammarby 2.12. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 65%. Brommapojkarna won 2 of their last 6; Hammarby won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brommapojkarna | 23% | 4.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.43 | – | – | – |
| 2Hammarby | 55% | 1.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hammarby. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 2.12| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.5%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–27.2%
- 0–16.8%
- 1–36.7%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hammarby −1| Brommapojkarna line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 14% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 21% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 22% | 34% |
| +1.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.