Skövde AIK
Halmstads BK
The model leans Halmstads BK at 40%. Expected goals: Skövde AIK 0.82, Halmstads BK 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%. Skövde AIK won 1 of their last 6; Halmstads BK won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Skövde AIK | 24% | 4.21 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.09 | – | – | – |
| 2Halmstads BK | 44% | 2.28 | – | – | – |
Pick: Halmstads BK. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.82 – 1.21| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.9%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–113.0%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–27.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Halmstads BK −0.5| Skövde AIK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 17% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 30% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.