Tvååkers IF
Skövde AIK
The model leans Draw at 38%. Expected goals: Tvååkers IF 0.77, Skövde AIK 0.60. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 75%. Tvååkers IF won 2 of their last 6; Skövde AIK won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tvååkers IF | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 41% | 2.44 | – | – | – |
| 2Skövde AIK | 24% | 4.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.77 – 0.60| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 84% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 95% |
| Both teams to score | Yes24% | No76% |
Most likely scores
- 0–025.5%
- 1–019.7%
- 0–115.2%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–07.6%
- 2–14.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tvååkers IF 0| Tvååkers IF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 25% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 39% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 19% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.