Predictions · Ettan Soedra · outside model coverage

Tvååkers IF

11
Won

Skövde AIK

The model leans Draw at 38%. Expected goals: Tvååkers IF 0.77, Skövde AIK 0.60. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 75%. Tvååkers IF won 2 of their last 6; Skövde AIK won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Tvååkers IF35%2.87
XDraw41%2.44
2Skövde AIK24%4.14

Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.77 – 0.60
LineOverUnder
1.540%60%
2.516%84%
3.55%95%
Both teams to scoreYes24%No76%

Most likely scores

  • 0025.5%
  • 1019.7%
  • 0115.2%
  • 1111.7%
  • 207.6%
  • 214.5%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Tvååkers IF 0
Tvååkers IF lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.512%88%
-112%25%64%
-0.536%64%
036%39%25%
+0.575%25%
+175%19%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.