Tvååkers IF
Åtvidaberg
The model leans Åtvidaberg at 40%. Expected goals: Tvååkers IF 0.77, Åtvidaberg 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 62%. Tvååkers IF won 2 of their last 6; Åtvidaberg won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tvååkers IF | 24% | 4.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.97 | – | – | – |
| 2Åtvidaberg | 43% | 2.33 | – | – | – |
Pick: Åtvidaberg. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.77 – 1.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 0–116.9%
- 0–014.9%
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–27.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Åtvidaberg −0.5| Tvååkers IF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 17% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 31% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.