Predictions · Ettan Soedra · outside model coverage

Åtvidaberg

33
Lost

FC Rosengård

The model leans Åtvidaberg at 53%. Expected goals: Åtvidaberg 2.08, FC Rosengård 1.04. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 58%. Åtvidaberg won 3 of their last 6; FC Rosengård won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Åtvidaberg60%1.66
XDraw23%4.44
2FC Rosengård17%5.77

Pick: Åtvidaberg. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.08 – 1.04
LineOverUnder
1.582%18%
2.560%40%
3.538%62%
Both teams to scoreYes57%No43%

Most likely scores

  • 219.9%
  • 119.6%
  • 209.5%
  • 109.2%
  • 316.9%
  • 306.6%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Åtvidaberg −1
Åtvidaberg lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.538%62%
-138%23%39%
-0.561%39%
061%21%18%
+0.582%18%
+182%12%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.