Predictions · Ettan Soedra · outside model coverage

Åtvidaberg

21
Won

Skövde AIK

The model leans Åtvidaberg at 54%. Expected goals: Åtvidaberg 1.87, Skövde AIK 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%. Åtvidaberg won 3 of their last 6; Skövde AIK won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Åtvidaberg62%1.62
XDraw24%4.18
2Skövde AIK14%6.93

Pick: Åtvidaberg. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.87 – 0.80
LineOverUnder
1.575%25%
2.550%50%
3.528%72%
Both teams to scoreYes47%No53%

Most likely scores

  • 1012.9%
  • 2012.1%
  • 1110.4%
  • 219.7%
  • 307.5%
  • 006.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 13% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Åtvidaberg −1
Åtvidaberg lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.537%63%
-137%25%37%
-0.563%37%
063%22%15%
+0.585%15%
+185%11%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.