Predictions · Ettan Soedra · outside model coverage

Åtvidaberg

22
Lost

Tvååkers IF

The model leans Åtvidaberg at 50%. Expected goals: Åtvidaberg 1.38, Tvååkers IF 0.63. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 64%. Åtvidaberg won 3 of their last 6; Tvååkers IF won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Åtvidaberg54%1.85
XDraw30%3.32
2Tvååkers IF16%6.31

Pick: Åtvidaberg. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.38 – 0.63
LineOverUnder
1.560%40%
2.533%67%
3.515%85%
Both teams to scoreYes35%No65%

Most likely scores

  • 1018.5%
  • 0013.3%
  • 2012.8%
  • 1111.6%
  • 018.4%
  • 218.1%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Åtvidaberg −0.5
Åtvidaberg lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.527%73%
-127%28%45%
-0.555%45%
055%28%17%
+0.583%17%
+183%13%4%
+1.596%4%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.