Åtvidaberg
Tvååkers IF
The model leans Åtvidaberg at 50%. Expected goals: Åtvidaberg 1.38, Tvååkers IF 0.63. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 64%. Åtvidaberg won 3 of their last 6; Tvååkers IF won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Åtvidaberg | 54% | 1.85 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| 2Tvååkers IF | 16% | 6.31 | – | – | – |
Pick: Åtvidaberg. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.38 – 0.63| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.5%
- 0–013.3%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–18.4%
- 2–18.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Åtvidaberg −0.5| Åtvidaberg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 28% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 13% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.