Predictions · Ettan Soedra · outside model coverage

Tvååkers IF

22
Lost

Utsiktens BK

The model leans Tvååkers IF at 44%. Expected goals: Tvååkers IF 1.20, Utsiktens BK 0.68. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 64%. Tvååkers IF won 2 of their last 6; Utsiktens BK won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Tvååkers IF47%2.11
XDraw33%3.04
2Utsiktens BK20%5.10

Pick: Tvååkers IF. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.20 – 0.68
LineOverUnder
1.556%44%
2.529%71%
3.512%88%
Both teams to scoreYes34%No66%

Most likely scores

  • 1018.4%
  • 0015.3%
  • 1112.4%
  • 2011.0%
  • 0110.3%
  • 217.5%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Tvååkers IF −0.5
Tvååkers IF lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%27%51%
-0.549%51%
049%30%21%
+0.579%21%
+179%15%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.