Predictions · Conference League Qualification · outside model coverage
Austria Wien
0–0
Lost
Braga
The model leans Braga at 60%. Expected goals: Austria Wien 1.06, Braga 2.51. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 61%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match19
68
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Austria Wien | 13% | 7.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.38 | – | – | – |
| 2Braga | 68% | 1.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Braga. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.06 – 2.51| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–37.9%
- 1–17.5%
- 0–37.4%
- 0–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Braga −1.5| Austria Wien line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 9% | 86% |
| -0.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| 0 | 14% | 17% | 69% |
| +0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| +1 | 31% | 22% | 47% |
| +1.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.