Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
Braga
2–2
Lost
Celta Vigo
The model leans Braga at 43%. Expected goals: Braga 1.63, Celta Vigo 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match47
27
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| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Braga | 47% | 2.15 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.73 | – | – | – |
| 2Celta Vigo | 27% | 3.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Braga. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.63 – 1.18| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–17.1%
- 1–26.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Braga −0.5| Braga line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.