Celta Vigo
Osasuna
The model leans Celta Vigo at 44%. Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.59, Osasuna 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%. Celta Vigo won 2 of their last 5; Osasuna won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Celta Vigo | 48% | 2.10 | 2.00 | 48% | 0 |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.65 | 3.25 | 29% | −2 |
| 2Osasuna | 25% | 4.00 | 4.10 | 23% | +2 |
Pick: Celta Vigo. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.59 – 1.09| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–17.5%
- 0–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 37% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Celta Vigo −0.5| Celta Vigo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 23% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.